In the latest episode of Cointelegraph’s The Market Report, analyst Marcel Pechman discusses the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approved in the European Union, which went live on the Euronext Amsterdam exchange on Aug. 15. Despite the seemingly unconventional choice of the Guernsey regulator for its constitution, the fund’s listing on Euronext suggests a strategic maneuver, though its meager 1 million euro launch and unfamiliar management casts a shadow over its appeal.

Moving on, Pechman shifts focus to the United States Bitcoin ETF landscape, where the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has once again delayed its decision on approving a spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF, setting a potential deadline for early 2024. This recurrent cycle of postponements echoes the challenges faced over the past decade.

The lack of regulatory clarity in the U.S. cryptocurrency market underscores the SEC’s reluctance to endorse a spot crypto ETF.

Pechman also discusses Bitcoin’s price trajectory. According to Bitcoin investor Jesse Myers, breaking the $100,000 barrier is intricately tied to the block subsidy halving in mid-2024. Myers challenges the efficient market hypothesis, positing that the market will take 12 to 18 months post-halving to fully assimilate the implications.

Pechman conveys skepticism about predicting market outcomes, acknowledging many factors that can sway Bitcoin’s trajectory, including Federal Reserve decisions, banking liquidity, economic conditions and unforeseen events.

Pechman concludes by circling back to the primary drivers of Bitcoin’s value: the abundance of fiat currency and government debt. He foresees Bitcoin surpassing $100,000, but the real-world purchasing power of that sum might be diminished due to inflation.

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