{"id":19062,"date":"2023-06-05T09:46:17","date_gmt":"2023-06-05T09:46:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nftandcrypto-news.com\/crypto\/31k-was-not-the-end-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week\/"},"modified":"2023-06-05T09:46:19","modified_gmt":"2023-06-05T09:46:19","slug":"31k-was-not-the-end-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nftandcrypto-news.com\/crypto\/31k-was-not-the-end-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018$31K was not the end\u2019 \u2014 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of June in familiar territory, but a breakout is coming, investors say.<\/p>\n

After a calm weekly close, BTC\/USD is firmly in its established trading range, while under the hood, market participants are preparing for some dramatic shifts.<\/p>\n

It has been a long time coming, and for seasoned traders, the signs are increasingly pointing to volatility making a comeback.<\/p>\n

There is little by way of macroeconomic triggers due this week, making the focus shift elsewhere for cues as to what BTC price action might do in the short term.<\/p>\n

The on-chain analysis provides other interesting insights, reinforcing the idea that for Bitcoin currently, the only \u201cboring\u201d part is the spot price.<\/p>\n

Cointelegraph looks at the key factors at play as BTC\/USD hovers around $27,000 for another week.<\/p>\n

Weekly close preserves key trend line<\/h2>\n

BTC\/USD may not have inspired with its latest weekly close, but some popular traders are seeing new grounds for optimism.<\/p>\n

Despite remaining firmly in its narrow trading range, as confirmed by Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView,\u00a0the chances of a breakout toward $30,000 are increasing.<\/p>\n

BTC\/USD 1-day candle chart on Bitstamp. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cFeels like it\u2019s a matter of time until Bitcoin finally breaks that 30k level once and for all,\u201d trader Jelle wrote<\/a> in part of his latest analysis.<\/p>\n

Jelle, like others, noted that the 200-week moving average (MA) \u2014 a key support line \u2014 remained intact.<\/p>\n

BTC\/USD annotated chart. Source: Jelle\/ Twitter<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Also intact were various support structures on trader and analyst Rekt Capital\u2019s radar covering daily timeframes. <\/p>\n

\u201cSo far, so good,\u201d he summarized, about an exit higher, potentially invalidating a bearish \u201chead-and-shoulders\u201d structure from the previous weeks.<\/p>\n

\n

#BTC<\/a> successfully retesting not just the top of the red downtrending channel but also the bottom of the red box<\/p>\n

So far, so good$BTC<\/a> #Crypto<\/a> #bitcoin<\/a> https:\/\/t.co\/a0VCL61Qvm pic.twitter.com\/V7SnIMlpJZ<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) June 4, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

An additional tweet mentioned<\/a> a \u201csuccessful retest\u201d of support in the offing.<\/p>\n

\u201cBTC broke down from a head and shoulders pattern in May. But there\u2019s classic whipsaw action around the neckline,\u201d trading account Game of Trades nonetheless acknowledged<\/a>. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe pattern remains valid unless the price moves above the right shoulder.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

An accompanying chart gave a potential downside target of just $24,000 for BTC\/USD due to the head-and-shoulders pattern.<\/p>\n

Others looked for less movement, such as trader Crypto Tony, who eyed $25,300 as a possible destination, subject to $28,350 staying unflipped as resistance.<\/p>\n

\n

$BTC<\/a> \/ $USD<\/a> – June \/ July plan <\/p>\n

So right now we are consolidating following the drop from the 14th April high. I am looking for <\/p>\n

– $25,300 target to look for longs
– Must remain below $28,350 for the downside target
– Combo corrective pattern <\/p>\n

I will update daily as always pic.twitter.com\/Q93mr4hjGH<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) June 4, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Macro lull comes as traders eye dollar rebound<\/h2>\n

In an unusual week of calm for traders, June 5\u20139 will see little by way of macroeconomic data coming out of the United States.<\/p>\n

With the debt ceiling debacle left behind, the next potential volatility catalysts will come in the form of macro reports for May, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print; however, these are not due for another week.<\/p>\n

With that, attention is focusing on oil production cuts from Opec+ members as prices continue to fall despite existing reductions in output.<\/p>\n

\"\"
U.S. Dollar Index 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Meanwhile, a more direct potential headwind for Bitcoin and crypto comes in the form of the U.S. dollar.<\/p>\n

The strength of the greenback has been forming a rebound since the start of May, and since then, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) \u2014 traditionally inversely correlated with risk assets \u2014 has gained around 3.5%.<\/p>\n

Popular analyst Matthew Hyland noted increasing relative strength index (RSI) scores for DXY on weekly timeframes.<\/p>\n

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DXY Weekly opens: pic.twitter.com\/nRIGyKm4tl<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) June 4, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Fellow trader Skew flagged 104.7%, the current June high, as a critical level to close above to form a bullish DXY trend.<\/p>\n

\u201cStrong close & moving higher in early EU trading session,\u201d he commented<\/a> on the day. <\/p>\n

\u201cIf USD closes above $104.7, I would consider that as USD strength. So far this looks risk off but we see later on.\u201d <\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\n

$DXY<\/a> 1D
Strong close & moving higher in early EU trading session. <\/p>\n

if USD closes above $104.7, I would consider that as USD strength. <\/p>\n

So far this looks risk off but we see later on. https:\/\/t.co\/F28baIv2JV pic.twitter.com\/3SLDs5wtos<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Skew \u0394 (@52kskew) June 5, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Over the weekend, meanwhile, TraderSZ described<\/a> DXY as \u201cbullish until proven otherwise.\u201d<\/p>\n

Stocks buoy bullish crypto case<\/h2>\n

The debt ceiling resolution had an immediate cathartic effect on equities, but crypto markets have broadly failed to copy their enthusiasm.<\/p>\n

This may still change, market participants argue, as the S&P 500 hits 10-month highs.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe US House has passed a key debt ceiling deal, launching the #SP500 to its highest price since August. Altcoins like $LTC, $LEO, and $FGC have jumped today,\u201d research firm Santiment wrote<\/a> on June 2.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith crypto lagging behind equities, there could be some $BTC catch-up time coming soon.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Crypto vs. macro comparison. Source: Santiment\/ Twitter<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

An accompanying chart also tracked a \u201crebound\u201d for gold, this nonetheless short-lived, with a retracement setting in to mark the new week.<\/p>\n

As Cointelegraph reported, others were also eyeing a positive correlation between Bitcoin and a resurgent S&P 500.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin hodlers comfortably in profit<\/h2>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s easy to \u2018feel\u2019 that the Bitcoin rally is over, but the facts say it\u2019s not,\u201d popular technical analyst CryptoCon wrote in findings last month.<\/p>\n

At the time, BTC\/USD was almost $1,000 higher than current levels, but enthusiasm was just as lacking.<\/p>\n

CryptoCon was analyzing the state of Bitcoin holder profitability, using the net unrealized profit\/loss (NUPL) metric created in 2019 by entrepreneur and analyst Tuur Demeester and others.<\/p>\n

For the past several months, NUPL has stayed practically stationary around a value of 0.25, indicating that overall, the BTC supply is modestly \u201cin the black.\u201d<\/p>\n

NUPL measures the difference between unrealized profit and unrealized loss. It is calculated by gathering unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) and comparing how much coins are worth now with when they last moved on-chain.<\/p>\n

\u201cAny value above zero indicates that the network is in a state of net profit, while values below zero indicate a state of net loss. In general, the further NUPL deviates from zero, the closer the market trends towards tops and bottoms,\u201d analytics firm Glassnode explained\u00a0in an introduction.<\/p>\n

While calm in recent months, NUPL has delivered an uptrend retest, which is cause for confidence, CryptoCon now says.<\/p>\n

\u201c31k was not the end, hope you\u2019re ready!\u201d he concluded<\/a> in an update this weekend.<\/p>\n

An accompanying chart of NUPL showed its behavior versus investor sentiment at various stages over the past 10 years.<\/p>\n

\n

#Bitcoin<\/a> has seen a lot of sideways price action recently, but during that time two very important things have happened on the NUPL:<\/p>\n

– Retest of trend
– Support made on Hope \/ Fear sector<\/p>\n

The next step, a leap to the belief\/denial range<\/p>\n

31k was not the end, hope you’re ready! pic.twitter.com\/yi1GMO1hri<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) June 4, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Largest Bitcoin whales at center of \u201cdichotomy\u201d<\/h2>\n

On the topic of investor sentiment, the current view of the market varies heavily between classes of hodlers.<\/p>\n

Related:\u00a0Bitcoin \u2018big move\u2019 due in July after March $30K push \u2014 Latest analysis<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

As noted<\/a> by Glassnode, most remain risk-off on Bitcoin; since May, selling has dominated despite the lack of capitulatory events.<\/p>\n

The one exception, it appears, is the largest class of Bitcoin \u201cwhales.\u201d<\/p>\n

Uploading a chart of accumulation versus distribution adjusted by cohort, Glassnode showed that wallets holding at least 10,000 BTC are adding to their positions while everyone else is reducing exposure.<\/p>\n

\u201cAn interesting dichotomy across the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score persists, as the largest of Whales (>10K BTC) continue to aggressively accumulate, whilst all other major cohorts experience heavy distribution,\u201d researchers commented.<\/p>\n

The last accumulation phase from these \u201cmega whales\u201d was in late 2022, with BTC\/USD beginning its 2023 rebound weeks later.<\/p>\n

The whales then paused in mid-January, entering a distribution phase of their own before flipping back to accumulation in May.<\/p>\n

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Bitcoin trend accumulation score by cohort chart. Source: Glassnode\/ Twitter<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Magazine:\u00a0Home loans using crypto as collateral: Do the risks outweigh the reward?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n