{"id":23477,"date":"2023-10-07T06:59:29","date_gmt":"2023-10-07T06:59:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nftandcrypto-news.com\/crypto\/bitcoin-price-dives-2-on-us-jobs-data-as-fed-rate-hike-bets-heat-up\/"},"modified":"2023-10-07T06:59:32","modified_gmt":"2023-10-07T06:59:32","slug":"bitcoin-price-dives-2-on-us-jobs-data-as-fed-rate-hike-bets-heat-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nftandcrypto-news.com\/crypto\/bitcoin-price-dives-2-on-us-jobs-data-as-fed-rate-hike-bets-heat-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin price dives 2% on US jobs data as Fed rate hike bets heat up"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bitcoin (BTC) saw a snap retest of $27,000 around the Oct. 6 Wall Street open as wildcard United States employment data rattled markets.<\/p>\n

BTC\/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Analysis: Jobs data \u201cnot what Fed wanted to see\u201d<\/h2>\n

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC price action as the largest cryptocurrency lost 2.1% in a single hourly candle.<\/p>\n

A subsequent rebound saw bulls recover those losses, with $27,700 \u2014 the area of interest from before the data release \u2014 now back in focus.<\/p>\n

The volatility came thanks to U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) jumping to almost double the number expected for September \u2014 336,000 versus 170,000.<\/p>\n

Demonstrating the labor market\u2019s ongoing resilience to the Federal Reserve\u2019s counterinflation measures in the form of interest rate hikes, the implications of the September result were nonetheless viewed as bad for risk assets \u2014 including crypto.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cGood news is bad news since the FED wants the labor market to lose strength,\u201d popular trader CrypNuevo wrote<\/a> in part of a response on X (formerly Twitter).<\/p>\n

\u201cGiven this increase, it surprises me that the unemployment rate stayed the same (3.8%). So I believe that the data will be revised down and it\u2019ll be much lower.\u201d\u00a0<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Like others, CrypNuevo nonetheless eyed the increasing likelihood of another rate hike from the Fed at the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe market understands this data as a new threat for a potential new 25bsp hike in November 1st (25% probabilities given yesterday vs 31.3% probabilities today),\u201d he continued, referencing data from CME Group\u2019s FedWatch Tool.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have CPI on Thursday next week and that\u2019ll hopefully give us a clearer view.\u201d\u00a0<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

CPI, or the Consumer Price Index, forms one of the key inflation indicators for Fed policy.<\/p>\n

Continuing, financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter suggested that pressure was now on both markets and the Fed itself.<\/p>\n

\u201cFurthermore, the Fed pause was previously expected until June 2024, now a pause is expected until July 2024,\u201d it reported<\/a> on market projections for rate tweaks. <\/p>\n

\u201cMarket futures just fell 400+ points after the report. This is NOT what the Fed wanted to see.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Bitcoin open interest drains<\/h2>\n

Looking at Bitcoin\u2019s specific reaction, popular trader Skew showed spot and derivatives traders exiting on the NFP print.<\/p>\n

Related:\u00a0Bitcoin still beating US dollar versus \u2018eggflation\u2019 \u2014 Fed data<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

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Spot sold & perps puked after the jump in NFP <\/p>\n

shorts chasing a bit more here<\/p>\n

Likely PvP for rest of the morning https:\/\/t.co\/7faaQLfur5<\/p>\n

\u2014 Skew \u0394 (@52kskew) October 6, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u201cSlight probability shift on Nov 1 towards a hike but still unlikely,\u201d a further prognosis for Fed action read<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cWould need to see FED tone & posturing first to weigh the probability.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Updating analysis from earlier on Oct. 6, meanwhile, fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted declining Bitcoin open interest (OI).<\/p>\n

Previously, this had hit levels that previously initiated spurts of upside followed by downside volatility.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s another $600M in Open Interest lost since yesterday\u2019s high. Getting to the more average and \u2018healthy\u2019 levels again,\u201d he summarized.<\/p>\n

BTC\/USD chart with aggregated OI. Source: Daan Crypto Trades\/X<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n