{"id":25699,"date":"2023-11-27T11:04:18","date_gmt":"2023-11-27T11:04:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nftandcrypto-news.com\/crypto\/btc-price-eyes-40k-amid-record-hash-rate-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week\/"},"modified":"2023-11-27T11:04:21","modified_gmt":"2023-11-27T11:04:21","slug":"btc-price-eyes-40k-amid-record-hash-rate-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nftandcrypto-news.com\/crypto\/btc-price-eyes-40k-amid-record-hash-rate-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week\/","title":{"rendered":"BTC price eyes $40K amid record hash rate \u2014 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week keeping traders guessing near its highest levels in 18 months \u2014 what\u2019s next?<\/p>\n

BTC price action has held higher after spiking above $38,000 last week, but since then, a testing “micro-range” has left bulls and bears locked in battle.<\/p>\n

Whether a deeper retracement will come or a trip to $40,000 will leave naysayers behind is now the key short-term question for market participants.<\/p>\n

Coming up over the next few days are various potential catalysts to help effect trend emergence for Bitcoin, while underneath, there are mounting signs that the market is due a boost.<\/p>\n

Volatility is set to come at the hands of the monthly close later on, but before then, a host of macroeconomic events has the ability to inject some surprise price action.<\/p>\n

Cointelegraph takes a look at these issues and more in the weekly rundown of Bitcoin price volatility triggers for the week ahead.<\/p>\n

Monthly close looms with BTC price up less than 10%<\/h2>\n

The monthly close forms the key diary date for day traders this week, with Bitcoin at a crossroads.<\/p>\n

As Cointelegraph reported, untested liquidity levels to the downside and the lure of $40,000 to the upside \u2014 this surrounded by resistance \u2014 makes for a stubborn daily trading range.<\/p>\n

Neither bulls nor bears have been able to dislodge an increasingly narrow corridor for BTC\/USD, and even new higher highs on daily teimframes have been few and short lived.<\/p>\n

At the latest weekly close, a timely drop saw bids beginning to be filled, with Bitcoin dropping to lows of $37,100 before recovering, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView\u00a0shows.<\/p>\n

BTC\/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

For popular trader Skew, it is now time for bid momentum to return.<\/p>\n

\u201cSpot takers led the bounce & eventually perp takers were the forced bid; mostly shorts forced out of the market,\u201d he wrote in part of dedicated analysis<\/a> on X (formerly Twitter.)<\/p>\n

\u201cNow as we go into EU session & US session important to see if spot bids or not.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Skew likewise referenced blocks of liquidity both above and below spot price, with $37,000 and $38,000 the key levels to watch.<\/p>\n

\u201cLots of bid liquidity below $37K so if spot takers continue to be net sellers this would be the momentum required to fill those limit bids below,\u201d he wrote about the order book on largest global exchange Binance.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs for ask liquidity aka supply, that remains between $38K – $40K area ~ important area for higher.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Bitcoin order book data for Binance. Source: Skew\/X<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

With the monthly close just days away, Bitcoin is currently up 7.8% month-to-date, making November 2023 thoroughly average compared to years gone by.<\/p>\n

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that November is normally characterized by much stronger BTC price moves, and that these can be both up and down.<\/p>\n

Q4 overall, meanwhile, has so far delivered gains of nearly 40%.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Key Fed inflation markers lead macro catalysts<\/h2>\n

A classic macro week with volatility triggers to match awaits Bitcoin traders as November draws to a close.<\/p>\n

The United States Federal Reserve will receive some key data on inflation over the coming days, this feeding into next month\u2019s decision on interest rate policy.<\/p>\n

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Dec. 1, following comments from senior Fed officials throughout the week.<\/p>\n

The data releases of the most interest to markets will likely be Q3 GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) print for October, coming Nov. 29 and Nov. 30, respectively.<\/p>\n

Previously, U.S. macro data began to show inflation abating more quickly than markets expected, leading to positive reevaluations among risk assets.<\/p>\n

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Key Events This Week:<\/p>\n

1. New Home Sales data – Monday<\/p>\n

2. Consumer Confidence data – Tuesday<\/p>\n

3. Q3 GDP data – Wednesday<\/p>\n

4. PCE Inflation data – Thursday<\/p>\n

5. Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Friday<\/p>\n

6. Total of 10 Fed speaker events<\/p>\n

We are two weeks out from the December Fed meeting.<\/p>\n

\u2014 The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 26, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u201cFull trading week ahead and volatility is here to stay,\u201d financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized on X.<\/p>\n

Data from CME Group\u2019s FedWatch Tool currently puts the odds of the Fed holding rates at current levels at an almost unanimous 99.5%.<\/p>\n

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

GBTC eyes BTC price parity<\/h2>\n

While Bitcoin is still waiting for U.S. regulators to greenlight the country\u2019s first spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF), markets show that the mood continues to palpably change for the better.<\/p>\n

Nowhere is this more apparent than in the largest Bitcoin instuttional investment vehicle, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).<\/p>\n

Itself due to be converted to a spot ETF, GBTC is fast approaching parity with its underlying asset pair, BTC\/USD.<\/p>\n

Once nearly 50% lower, the GBTC share price had a mere 8% discount to net asset value, or NAV, as of Nov. 24, per CoinGlass data.<\/p>\n

GBTC premium vs. asset holdings vs. BTC\/USD chart (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The fund\u2019s renaissance has formed a key narrative over both a successful ETF go-ahead to come and the emergence of genuine mass institutional interest in Bitcoin for the first time.<\/p>\n

\u201cLooks like the mkt is really expecting this ETF approval soon,\u201d William Clemente, co-founder of crypto research firm Reflexivity, reacted<\/a> to the data at the weekend.<\/p>\n

In terms of the watershed moment hitting, however, dates of note now all come after the new year. <\/p>\n

In its latest market update sent to Telegram channel subscribers, trading firm QCP Capital argued that Jan. 3, 2024 would be a timely approval date, this coinciding with the 15th anniversary of the Bitcoin genesis block.<\/p>\n

Thereafter, Jan. 10 marks an interim deadline for the first spot ETF in line, that of ARK Invest, as \u201cthe final deadline for ARK’s application is included in the first approval batch.\u201d <\/p>\n

\u201cAnd in the case ARK is rejected and the rest postponed yet again, the true make-or-break deadline is 15 March 2024 \u2014 where Blackrock and the main bunch of candidates face their own final deadline,\u201d it added.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin hash rate passes 500 exahash watershed<\/h2>\n

In advance of the upcoming block subsidy halving in April 2024, Bitcoin miners are deploying record processing power to the network.<\/p>\n

Hash rate \u2014 the estimated measure of this deployment \u2014 is now at its highest levels ever, and this month passed 500 exahashes per second (EH\/s) for the first time.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin hash rate raw data (screenshot). Source: MiningPoolStats<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The achievement not only represents a psychological landmark, but underscores miners\u2019 conviction to future profitability \u2014 even when BTC price performance still remains 50% below its own peak.<\/p>\n

At the same time, outflows from known miner wallets to exchanges are at their lowest levels in seven years, per data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe flow of movement from Bitcoin miner wallets to exchange wallets ultimately represents the activity of these entities in the open market,\u201d contributing analyst Caue Oliveira wrote in one of its Quicktake market updates.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe entry of coins into exchanges increases the liquidity of BTC on these platforms, providing additional selling pressure in the market.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Bitcoin miner exchange flows chart. Source: CryptoQuant<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Oliveira noted that miners are always selling some portion of their holdings, but the current 90 BTC monthly average is the lowest since 2017.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin exchange balances resume downtrend<\/h2>\n

After a month of turmoil caused by withdrawal shut-offs and legal action against some of the biggest crypto exchanges, BTC balances are trending down once again.<\/p>\n

Related:\u00a0Bitcoin to $1M post-ETF approval? BTC price predictions diverge wildly<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

In line with the broader trend in place for five years, exchanges\u2019 stocks of BTC are drifting ever lower.<\/p>\n

According to the latest data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the combined holdings of the major exchanges totaled 2.332 million BTC as of Nov. 26.<\/p>\n

With the exception of recent lows in October, this is the smallest amount of available BTC since April 2018. At its peak in March 2020, just after the COVID-19 cross-market crash, the tally stood at 3.321 million BTC.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin exchange balance chart. Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The picture was complicated in November thanks to traders\u2019 reactions to Binance receiving a record $4.3 billion U.S. fine, along with Poloniex and HTX halting withdrawals altogether after a hack.<\/p>\n

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n